BUJUMBURA July 13th (ABP) – “Defining a population policy with an action plan and prioritize it in the financing of public policies, accelerating the implementation of the contraceptive revolution and give ourselves ways to reap the benefits of Demographic Dividend,” are proposals made by Dr. Aloys Kamuragiye and Dr. Déogratias Buzingo, at the presentation of their book: “Controlling population growth to take advantage of the dividend in Sub-Saharan Africa: case of Burundi “.
Their book presents what Burundi would gain by accelerating the demographic transition through the implementation of their proposals. This in the light of a comparison of two scenarios: if nothing were undertaken immediately in comparison to a situation where there would be a commitment. Both authors made projections in 2050 and 2100.
Burundi could gain in economy of doctors because in 2050 if nothing is undertaken the projections of the authors estimate that the country will need 2,718, while if reforms are undertaken the country will need 2,367, an economy of 351 doctors, an economy they estimate at 3,149 in 2100 if reforms are undertaken now. In 2050, Burundi could be saved as nurses because, according to their estimate, if the trend remains the same, the country will need 20,132 nurses against 17,533 if measures are applied or an economy of 2,599 whereas in 2100 this economy would amount to 23,323. According to the same projections, Burundi could gain by accelerating the demographic transition, in the economy of hospitals: in 2050, instead of setting up 272 hospitals, it would imply 237, i.e., an economy of 35 hospitals; while in 2100 these details count on an economy of 315 hospitals. An economy in Health Centers (CDS), in 2050, because instead of implementing 27,178 CDS, it would establish 23,669: an economy of 3,509, an economy of 31,487 compared to projections in 2100.
The same case was raised in teacher economy. For those in primary school, this acceleration of the demographic transition could save 30,658 teachers in 2050 and 178,153 in 2100. For high school teachers, this economy would amount to 12,986 teachers in 2050 and 129,303 teachers in 2100. These projections report an economy of new jobs, 42,684 in 2050 and 302,168 jobs in 2100.
Both authors argued that there would be savings in arable land, a sensitive component in Burundi. Thus they raised that if the trend remained the same, in 2050, 0.09 hectares is the portion of land that everyone will have at their disposal, whereas if measures for the acceleration of the demographic transition were applied, this portion would be 0.1 hectare.
Dr. Aloys Kamuragiye and Dr. Déogratias Buzingo believe that if nothing is done, projections in 2050 show that the Burundian population will rise to 20,275,204 while the most realistic scenario if measures are applied now, makes state of 16,017,030 people. In 2100, the scenario following the trend of the moment foresees a Burundian population of 75,296,302, but if measures are undertaken in the direction of the acceleration of the demographic transition, the realistic scenario counts on 43,809,720 people. “Even if the realistic scenario were realized, life would be almost unlivable,” says Dr. Aloys Kamuragiye in view of the size of Burundi and concludes that the most reasonable would be that by 2100, the Burundian population should not go over 30,000,000 people.
